General theory of globaliration → Пошукова робота
Formation of global monopolies in the global markets of separate financial instruments;
Formation of the united global monopoly in the result of integration of the said markets (reduction of \"price for transformation\" from one market to another down to a very small level).
The American government plays the role of the latter monopoly as it has very close contacts with the based in the territory of the USA transnational corporations including financial most of which due to the specifics of their activity do not need any organizational formation.
The matter may have the following form: the world policy will recently terminates its existence on the state level, transforming, on one part, to the national level of global groups of capitals and technologies and on the other part – to the internal level of political life of the country controlling over the major part of these capitals and technologies.
(In 1997 during the progress of the proamerican \"team of young reformers\", the Russian lobbyists were greatly amazed at finding out that the sphere of the most effective lobbying of several matters in the internal Russian politics had transformed from the Governmental level and the level of the President\'s Administration to the level of the Congress and the USA administration. In the USSR all matters having principal importance referring to development of the republics or regions should be solved not by their own authorities but by the curators of the corresponding directions in Moscow – in the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union and in the Council of Ministers.)
2.2. \"Euro\": suppression of threat and destructive egoism
In 1999 the rest tow parts of the process of monopoly globalization will elapse against the most important event of the century – commencement of the process for euro integration. Commencement of European currency integration will be the first real after establishment in the beginning nineties of the total world financial crisis attempt which has chances to become a success to depth regional integration up to the level which will dominate over global integration.
Integration of \"euro\" will reduce foreign currency reserves of banking systems of the world (firstly of Europe) and will release from them a great amount of dollars (only in China about tens milliards).
Besides, settlements at European market of energy carriers are made in dollars. Transformation of these settlements into euro will be after integration of the latter simply a matter of time, let it even be long, but it will release several tens of milliard dollars.
At last purchasing capacity of the maximum European banknote in 500 euros will be higher of the purchasing capacity of the maximum banknote of the USA denominated in 100 dollars. It will transfer into euro the major part of the large sums in cash in Europe, and not only in the countries of the currency union but also in the neighboring countries, - also tens of milliard dollars.
Apparent non-solicitude of the \"Eurozone\" leaders of the future of such dollars carries an extremely destructive character of inactivity not only for the USA but also for the rest of the world. Actually this inactivity provokes the USA to strengthen the process of further destabilization of the financial system of the world.
European dollars and China dollars should be absorbed by other countries not to destabilize the USA on their coming back to the country. Such absorbation of the world reserve currency to a great extent happens only under the conditions of a very deep economic destabilization. Such extent may be only compared with its release under the process of euro integration.
Thus, egoistic indifference of Europeans to welfare of the main global competitor – the USA – in a strategic plan provokes the latter to make destructive steps in respect of not only the eurozone economic power of which is protected from a short-term influence but in respect of the third parties, i.e. countries which are less stable and due to this reason these countries are a favorable potential recipient of the releasing dollars.
The most threatened regions are the Latin America (first of all it is Brazil) and several countries of the South-Eastern Asia and may be China.
2.3. Global financial competition outlook: technical progress slowdown
Attempt to carry out sterilization of dollars through disorganization of national economic system can not be the decision for a problem even if such method allows to postpone the decision of the problem despite of its being very expensive.
There are two final and real variants to solve the problem:
First – carrying out of long-term investments of the releasing dollars into large projects in the zones of mutual influence of the USA and Europe (for example: reconstruction of the Transsib aimed at establishment of the united transport European-Asian line \"London-Tokio\"). As Russia still remains under political influence of the USA and under economic influence of Europe, sterilization of the extra dollars of the world in the territory of Russia will be for the USA an exchange of a part of its geopolitical influence to the short-term and medium-term economic safety.
This variant demands for not only constructive approach to the problem (for example: it corresponds to the demands of the overheating economy of Japan) but also consent of the Russian society for its deep healthening or at least readiness for it.
The second variant – taking a pause which may be gained after dollar runoff to the destabilizing \"second economics\" of the world for organization of the head-on competitive collision with the eurozone, first premonition of which could be found with non-united European economy in the September, 1992, and with only starting its trip to integration economy of the South-Eastern Asia in the second half of the 1997 year.
This scheme allows the USA to take the strategic initiative and make its own choice of time, sphere and the character for this collision that taking into consideration factor of abruptness gives the USA an advantage.
At static consideration of outlook for such collision based on comparison of the already existing resources, Europe has advantageous chances. But as compared on the point of view of dynamics taking into consideration level of expenses, increasing role of newest technologies and actually \"natural\" (after disintegration of the USSR) monopoly of the USA on holding its holding and development performed with taking into consideration cardinal differences of the American and European bureaucracy (the first one – creates, the second – exists) makes us to make our choice in favor of the USA if we have a long-term outlook for future.